(ORDO NEWS) — American scientist Aaron Clause has calculated when the next world war will begin, writes Milliyet. He concluded that large-scale conflicts such as World War II occur on average every 205 years. However, this does not mean that humanity can relax.
Although there have been many smaller military conflicts since the last World War, none of them have escalated into a new catastrophe. World War II was one of the greatest disasters that humanity has ever seen. However, according to some mathematicians, one day in the future this state of affairs, purely statistically, may change! Here is the date of the next world war, calculated by mathematicians.
Humanity throughout history has many times witnessed great destruction, catastrophes, bloodshed and tears during the wars that it unleashed with its own hands.
Undoubtedly, at the forefront of these conflicts are the First and Second World Wars, which took place with a difference of 20 years and caused the death of millions of people. Despite the fact that 80 years have passed since the last World War, scenarios of a possible Third World War are often the subject of discussion today.
Many fear that over the past 80 years humanity has become much more destructive weapons and therefore, in the event of a new world war, the entire human race will be in danger of extinction.
These days, the main developments that give rise to such concerns are tensions between China and Taiwan, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the situation in Syria, North Korean missile tests. But how far or close is World War III, according to mathematicians?
Date hidden in calculations
Wars, which are sometimes based on historical and sometimes geopolitical reasons, primarily conflicts of interest between countries, have so far been characterized by many experts from different points of view. The famous Prussian general Karl von Clausewitz wrote in his treatise “On War” as follows: “War is the continuation of politics by other (namely: violent) means.
The goal of all wars is to subdue the will of the enemy by destroying his armed forces.” Although a possible World War III is often estimated by international relations experts, political scientists and military specialists by analyzing events between countries, some mathematicians use their system to predict when such a war will occur. In their opinion, when a new world war breaks out is hidden in mathematical models and calculations.
Mathematicians who base their World War III predictions on the application of static models to historical data on armed conflicts use these models to analyze past events and geopolitical factors. In this way, an attempt is made to predict the likelihood of future conflict and what will cause it.
Diplomatic decision, unpredictable events
Researchers in mathematical calculations take into account various complex variables, including political tensions, economic factors, technological developments, regional disputes, ideological conflicts, and include volatile situations in their models.
However, factors such as human behavior, the impact of unpredictable events, and the possibility of a diplomatic settlement make the forecasting process difficult.
Occurs every 205 years
American scientist Aaron Clauset of the University of Colorado analyzed the frequency of armed conflicts from 1823 to 2003 and found that large-scale conflicts, such as World War II, occur on average every 205 years.
Taking into account the 80-year period after the Second World War, the researchers, starting from the resulting graphs, came to the conclusion that it would take 100 to 150 years for such a great catastrophe to occur again.
However, the statisticians who participated in the study drew attention to the fact that it is not only the charts that should be interpreted, since unexpected sudden events can provoke a big war in a shorter time than expected, so humanity should not relax.
To understand, you need to wait 100-150 years
Aaron Klause notes that in the period from 1913 to 1945, covering the beginning of the First and Second World Wars, approximately every 2.7 years there was an event that led to large-scale human casualties. “Between 1945 and 2003, there were wars approximately every 12.8 years,” he continued.
“Analysis of all wars since 1823 showed that as the time between wars increased, conflicts became shorter. In our study, we reached 2003, so it is important to note that the conflicts of the last few years are not taken into account.
“The study showed that before a war as big as World War II breaks out, there should be a gap of 205 years. To understand whether this is a new period of peace or just statistics that will remain on paper, we need to wait 100-150 years,” added the mathematician.
“The risk of a major war in the future may be higher than currently thought. Therefore, it is essential to continue promoting peace and mitigating conflicts,” said Aaron Clause.
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