(ORDO NEWS) — The world’s population will peak at 9.7 billion by 2064 and decline to 8.8 billion by the end of the century, according to a study by the University of Washington in Seattle and published in Lancet…
The researchers say that in 23 countries, including Japan, Spain, Italy and Ukraine, the population will be halved, while in sub-Saharan Africa, on the contrary, it will triple. Demographers predict that by 2100 there will be more older people than younger people. Specifically, there will be 2.4 billion people over the age of 65 in the world and only 1.7 billion under the age of 20.
Increased access to contraception and improved educational attainment of women and girls are identified as the main factors contributing to population decline. If these trends do not continue, the population will continue to grow.
It is also projected that fertility rates will decline from 4.6 births per woman (data as of 2017) to 1.7 by 2100. If this decline in fertility does not occur, overall population growth will be much more significant.
The study’s lead author Christopher Murray believes that states should not artificially influence the number of children they want in families. Instead, he calls for changes in migration policies in a number of countries.
“The best solutions for maintaining the current population level, economic growth and geopolitical security are open immigration and social policies that support families with the desired number of children. However, there is a real danger that in the face of population decline, some countries may consider policies that limit access to reproductive health services, which could be devastating,” Murray said.
“It is imperative that freedom and women’s rights are at the top of every government’s agenda.” – Christopher Murray
China’s working-age population is projected to decline from 950 million in 2017 to about 360 million by 2100, and India’s from 762 million to 580 million.
Study co-author Stein Emil Vollset notes that such changes in population structure will pose new dilemmas for states.
“While population decline is potentially good news in terms of reducing carbon emissions and stress on food systems, economic problems will arise as the number of older people increases and the number of young people decreases. Fewer workers and fewer taxpayers will affect countries’ ability to generate the wealth needed to fund social support and health care. ”is talking Wallset.
According to researchers’ forecasts, the population in Russia will invariably decline and in 2100 it will be about 106 million people. In Ukraine, it will fall from 44.5 million to 17.5 million. The countries with the largest population by 2100 will be India, Nigeria, China, the United States and Pakistan. Today the top 5 most populated countries on the planet looks like this:
1. China (1.439 billion people)
2. India (1.380 billion)
3. USA (331 million)
4. Indonesia (273.52 million)
5. Pakistan (220.9 million).
According to United Nations forecasts, the world’s population will be 10 billion by 2050 and will rise to 11 billion by the end of the century.
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