(ORDO NEWS) — The end of the century will not be the happiest time for humanity, according to scientists from the University of Washington and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in the United States. So, by 2100, the number of people may sharply decrease, a demographic catastrophe will strike.
At first, it is expected that the number of people will increase by 2060, but in a couple of decades the picture will change dramatically. The population of people in Italy, Japan and other similar countries will be reduced by about half.
This, of course, is a big plus for the environment, but a huge minus for the economy: the number of elderly people should not exceed the young, otherwise the health care system will fall and there will be a shortage of personnel.
By 2064, the planet will be home to about 9.7 billion people, and by 2100 – 8.8 billion. This completely contradicts the previously announced forecasts, according to which by 2100 12.4 billion people will walk on the earth.
The new research is based on a more advanced model based on cohort fertility, that is, the average number of children born to a group of women up to a certain age. The final data showed that a serious decline in fertility will occur in African countries.
Today, for example, in sub-Saharan Africa, there are 4.7 children for every woman, and in Nigeria the figure is generally 7. By the end of the century, it should be 1.8.
In Japan, not 128 million people will live, but 60, and in China – less than 1 billion. The sad thing is that the number of people over 80 will increase almost sixfold. States will be forced to spend more on health care. To prevent this from happening, countries need to develop competent immigration policies and support large families.
Of course, the forecast may turn out to be false, because more than one catastrophe will happen in half a century. Or, conversely, the next decades will be very calm.
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