US, WASHINGTON (ORDO NEWS) — Scientists have come to the conclusion that in the case of the introduction of quarantine, even the slightest delay will lead to serious consequences, writes The New York Times. So, according to their calculations, if Trump had announced self-isolation measures two weeks earlier, then 83% of deaths in the entire US could have been prevented.
If the United States began to introduce measures of social distance a week earlier, it would have been possible to save about 36 thousand people. These conclusions were made by scientists from Columbia University, writes The New York Times. And if the cities began to close two weeks earlier, that is, March 1, it would have been possible to prevent the death of 83% of all pandemic victims in the United States – that is, 54 thousand people would have remained alive by early May.
Scientists are confident that even a small delay in taking quarantine measures can lead to great consequences. Therefore, if the necessary measures were introduced at least a little earlier, the worst-case scenario could have been avoided.
In addition, scientists say that in the states that are now opening after quarantine, the epidemic can get out of control again if the authorities do not closely monitor the situation and suppress the foci of infection as soon as they appear.
As the author of the article recalls, in March, President Trump did not immediately begin to cancel the meetings and, on the contrary, argued that the risks of contracting the United States are very low. On March 9, he said that life and the economy are taking their course, and the coronavirus is no worse than the flu. According to him, then there were only 546 confirmed cases of coronavirus. However, as scientists later calculated, in fact, tens of thousands of people were already infected. But due to the lack of a testing system, they did not know about the diagnosis, and as a result, the scale of the epidemic was unclear.
Only on March 16, Trump called on Americans to limit travel, not to gather in groups and not to take children to school. According to scientists, a change in the behavior of Americans in mid-March has slowed the spread of the virus. But in those cities where the virus got earlier and spread faster, these measures were not enough.
For example, scientists cite the following figures: in the New York metropolitan area by May 3, 21.8 thousand people died from coronavirus, and if quarantine were introduced a week earlier, this number would be less than 4.3 thousand.
Experts admit that the figures are approximate , one cannot know for sure, but the trend and conclusions are important. Indeed, behind these figures are real people who became ill in March and April.
However, it is important not only to introduce measures, it is necessary that people comply with them. And people are more willing to accept restrictions when victims of the disease are in sight. In March, the number of victims was small, the epidemic spread quietly. Many patients then did not even realize that they had a coronavirus, often they had other symptoms. And, for example, in many organizations, until one of the employees received a positive test, the offices did not close, and during this time they managed to infect one of the colleagues.
As a result, scientists believe that in the absence of extensive testing and an emergency system, if restrictions are now removed in the US, there may be new deaths, tens of thousands of deaths, publication writes.
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