(ORDO NEWS) ā The chances are low, and an asteroid of this size will not lead to a global catastrophe, but after repeated monitoring, the risk of a collision with the Earth has not disappeared.
A small asteroid 2023 DW may fall into North America in 23 years. The probability of a collision is less than 1 percent, but despite ongoing observations, the rate has not fallen to zero.
If 2023 DW did fall, the impact would be more like an atomic bomb explosion without radiation than an event that killed the dinosaurs.
With more telescopes scouring the skies for asteroids that could threaten Earth, weāve begun to find many more candidates.
In most cases, after calculating the orbit, it becomes obvious that there is no threat ā at least for the next hundreds or a thousand years, until unpredictable forces direct the object along a completely different path.
Once or twice a year, the considered asteroid crosses the Earthās orbit. The next time the object will approach the planet is in the next century, causing worries about the possibility of a collision.
At the initial stage, there is always a large error, and the probability of an object colliding with the Earth is estimated as small ā one in several thousand or several tens of thousands are typical.
Further observations allow us to more accurately estimate the trajectory of the newly discovered object. This is usually enough to reduce the risk to zero, apart from giraffe-sized objects.
Since its opening on February 26, 2023, DW has proven to be an exception. The probability of a collision is low, but it has not changed much over the 7 days of observations.
NASAās Center for Near-Earth Object Research currently estimates the chance of a collision in 2046 as one in 560, or 0.18 percent.
This means that there is a 99.82 percent chance that he will not hit. If 2023 DW does pass us by 2046, there will be some subsequent close encounters that could also carry risk.
The diameter of the 2023 asteroid is estimated at 47 meters, which is more than twice the width of the object that exploded over Chelyabinsk.
How much damage the 2023 DW will do on impact depends on its composition. An explosion like the one that leveled forests for miles in Tunguska is currently considered the most likely.
On the Turin Scale, which combines the likelihood of a collision with the damage a collision could cause on a scale of one to ten, 2023 DW is currently rated 1.
This is not considered cause for concern, but is currently the only asteroid with a non-zero rating. . Apophis, the first asteroid to score over 1, reached 4 at its peak, but as of 2021, its rating has dropped to zero.
Modeling based on available information shows a line of maximum danger crossing Indonesia across the Pacific, over northern Mexico, and across much of the US.
If future observations show a growing risk, then the success of the DART mission could be very beneficial.
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