(ORDO NEWS) — Scientists have explained the “obesity paradox” with errors in past calculations. Even moderate overweight increases the risk of death, and the more obesity develops, the more noticeable this increase.
The negative effects of obesity are well known and proven many times over. It has also been linked to high blood pressure, diabetes, and other conditions that increase the risk of premature death.
However, the results of some studies point to the existence of the so-called obesity paradox.
According to these data, a sharp increase in the risk of death is typical only for people with severe obesity (as well as for people with severe underweight).
In people who are slightly overweight ( body mass index 25-30), the risk of death from any cause is even lower than with normal (BMI 18.5-25), and with moderate obesity (BMI 30-35) – almost the same.
As a result, the mortality curve depending on the body mass index has a U-shape.
However, a new statistical study by researchers at Colorado State University Boulder has shown that no paradox seems to exist.
Its appearance may be due to the shortcomings of past work, and if we analyze more carefully, then mortality steadily increases with an increase in BMI.
Ryan Masters (Ryan Masters) and his colleagues noticed that to estimate BMI, they usually rely only on current height and weight indicators.
Such data reflects the temporary condition of a person, while in the past he could suffer from obesity or overweight for a long time.
This is shown by a new analysis that covered 17,784 US residents who were tracked from 1988 to 2015 as part of the NHANES program.
The researchers found that as many as 20 percent of people whose body weight could be assessed as normal at the end of the program were overweight or obese for decades.
Conversely, 37 percent of overweight people and 60 percent of obese people had a normal BMI for a long time.
All these nuances introduce distortions in the assessment of the risks associated with being overweight and its health consequences.
And after Masters et al took into account long-term BMI, the U-shaped curve turned into a steadily rising straight line.
Mortality among people with moderate overweight was higher than with normal, and the more obese, the greater was its increase.
According to new data, with an increase in BMI, the risk of death increased quite significantly, from 22 to 91 percent.
This allowed scientists to note that one out of every six deaths in the United States is somehow related to problems caused by overweight and obesity – many times more than previous estimates.
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