Why do meteorologists’ forecasts not come true with 100% probability

(ORDO NEWS) — Predicting the future is hard work, and meteorologists should never be expected to come true with absolute accuracy.

Since ancient times, weather prediction has been based on long-term observations and documentation of results. For generations, almanacs containing the end product of years of observations have been used to predict climate conditions on a given day.

Although they became more complex over time (tracking temperature, pressure, wind and humidity at different times of the day, in addition to the state of the sky and the phases of the moon), these records were still not perfect; it was still raining when sunny and clear conditions were expected, and cold and hot weather suddenly came.

Later, observations made over wide geographical areas were reported to regional networks of meteorological stations and to national meteorological offices. Weather maps collected and displayed all this timely information,

Since the mid-20th century, digital computers have made it possible to mathematically and objectively calculate changes in atmospheric conditions using weather models that continue to evolve, and while forecasting has improved, even these tools have failed to perfect it.

Why is it so difficult for meteorologists to predict the weather? The thing is that they have to monitor many conditions and variables simultaneously over vast territories, while many of these variables interact and influence each other.

A weather forecast is more than just a moving target. This is a prediction made from a seething cloud of data.

The weather forecasting tools and experiences of the information age are very good and they continue to improve, but they will probably never produce absolutely perfect forecasts. However, ceteris paribus, it is worth recognizing that today the weather can be predicted quite accurately.


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