NEW YORK, BRONX (ORDO News) — In February 2023, Turkey and Syria were rocked by two powerful earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.8. Researchers from the University of Arizona conducted a study that reveals the likelihood of new earthquakes in the Pacific Ocean region.
Shallow faults similar to those that led to the Turkish-Syrian earthquakes occurred about 1,000 years ago in the Puget Lowlands of western Washington, according to a new study published in the journal Science Advances.
Using tree ring analysis, the researchers pinpointed that this seismic event occurred in late 923 or early 924 AD. And, more importantly, this study suggests a scary conclusion: the region, inhabited by more than four million people, could face a similar devastating earthquake in the future.
The ancient earthquake that occurred in the Puget Sound region was either the result of the simultaneous rupture of all shallow faults in the region, creating a magnitude 7.8 earthquake, or successive twin earthquakes similar to those that occurred in Turkey and Syria, with an estimated magnitude of 7.5 and 7.3. This discovery highlights that shallow faults can lead to more destructive and directional earthquakes than other geological factors.
What’s most surprising is that while the Pacific Ocean region has long been known for its seismic activity, this study revealed connections between various shallow faults in the region. These connections can be either underground or mechanical, and to date have not been considered in regional hazard models used for engineering projects and policies.
Brian Black, assistant professor of dendrochronology at the Tree Ring Research Laboratory at the University of Arizona, notes, “These are four shallow faults, indicating that they ruptured about 1,000 years ago as a result of a cluster of earthquakes called the millennium cluster.”
The researchers used a unique method of dendrochronology, analyzing the annual growth rings of trees. Climate change shapes the width of these rings, and thanks to this “living chronology” they were able to pinpoint the date of the last earthquake in Puget Sound.
Supported by radiocarbon fluctuations caused by a solar storm between 774 and 775, the researchers demonstrated that these two factors coincided, recording the exact time of the earthquake that occurred.
Despite the dire prediction, Black and his team are calling for deeper study of the problem and updating regional hazard models to reduce the risk and prepare for possible future events.
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News agencies contributed to this report, edited and published by ORDO News editors.
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