AI-generated scenarios show that in 10-12 years, even with significant efforts to curb CO2 emissions, global temperatures will rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period.
The critical value – 2 degrees – will be reached no later than 2054. Leaves no hope for better AI scenarios.
AI has at least one clear advantage – it doesn’t give a damn about humanity. He is impartial and unbiased
Climatologists from Stanford University and the University of Colorado have developed an AI system to predict global warming.
Calculations have shown that the Earth will warmer compared to the pre-industrial era by 1.5 degrees already between 2033 and 2035.
This study shows that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as envisaged by the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, is unlikely to succeed.
According to climatologists, the world has already warmed by 1.1 or 1.2 degrees since the middle of the 19th century and there is no reason to believe that warming will stop.
“There will no doubt be a time when we call the 1.5C target for maximum warming unattainable,” said Kim Cobb, director of the Brown University Environmental Institute, who was not involved in the study. “And this article could be the beginning of the end of the 1.5C target.”
Stanford University’s Noah Diffenbaugh, co-author of the study, said the world is on the verge of the 1.5 degree mark under “any realistic emission reduction scenario.”
Averting a 2-degree rise seems to be possible, but only if all the major industrial nations reach zero emissions by the middle of this century, which is also unlikely.
An AI-assisted study found that keeping the rise below 2 degrees Celsius, even with drastic cuts in emissions, is next to impossible.
According to AI calculations, in a scenario with high levels of pollution, the world will reach the mark of 2 degrees by about 2050. Lower pollution could delay that moment for a while, until 2054.
AI and climate scientists
AI findings are not consistent with the forecast developed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The group, in its 2021 report, indicated that with low levels of pollution, warming would only exceed 2 degrees in the 2090s.
“We are using this very powerful tool that is able to take information and integrate it in a way that no human mind can,” says Diffenboe.
He argues that the world has already warmed up so much that no matter how much pollution is reduced in the next few years, the temperature will rise by 1.5 degrees anyway.
Zeke Hausfather of tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth, who was not involved in the study, agreed with the AI’s findings. Hausvater believes it’s time to “stop pretending” that warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees.
Bill Hare of Climate Analytics believes that the 1.5C limit is still achievable. He says there is a rapid decarbonization scenario that Diffenbaugh has not explored.
But this is an extremely hard and not the most realistic scenario: by 2030, the world must cut carbon emissions in half, “then warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees,” Hare said.
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