(ORDO NEWS) — The ability of the oceans to absorb excess CO2 from the atmosphere may decrease significantly after 2100. This conclusion was made by scientists at the University of Texas at Austin.
The reason for these changes will be a decrease in the alkalinity of water on the surface.
Using simulations, scientists have found that it is the concentration of alkali that is the main regulator of carbon dioxide in water on a secular scale.
The decrease in water alkalinity, in turn, is due to climate change. Increased precipitation and warming affect ocean currents, which affect ocean surface chemistry.
This creates a layer of warm fresh water that won’t mix easily with the cool salt water underneath.
At the same time, modeling has previously shown that the oceans absorb carbon dioxide less and less over time, but only now scientists have begun to consider alkalinity as a key factor.
To find out, the staff at the University of Texas ran a simulation of 450 years.
It is noted that today the oceans absorb about a third of CO2 emissions produced by humans.
Under the worst-case scenario of climate change, the efficiency of this absorption will peak in 2100, and in 2300 it will fall by half.
At the same time, scientists believe that this scenario is unlikely due to global efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
Nevertheless, the results of the study showed a point of no return, after which a serious acceleration of global warming could begin.
Earlier, on February 16, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) stated that humanity does not eliminate the causes of climate change, only fighting their consequences.
According to experts, such behavior is a “loop of death” and a strategic risk to the ability to transform society and avoid catastrophic climate and environmental changes.
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