Exclusive: CIA predicted a global pandemic 10 years ago

US, WASHINGTON (ORDO NEWS) — In 2009, the analytical analysis of the American CIA indicated the possibility of a global pandemic, with China and Southeast Asia being mentioned as its source, Le Figaro writes.

The importance of sanitary safety was also noted in France, but no comprehensive measures were taken to avoid a pandemic.

It turns out that mankind has been warned about the dangers of a global pandemic more than once, writes Le Figaro. Thus, the CIA analytical center in 2009 issued a report on global trends until 2025, which stated that “the emergence of a highly contagious respiratory disease among people, for which adequate measures will not be taken, can cause a world pandemic.”

Moreover, it meant that such a disease could appear in a highly populated region where animals and people live crowded – for example, in China and Southeast Asia.

Moreover, experts called the coronavirus itself as this possible disease. And the insufficient degree of development of healthcare in the country where the virus will come from will prevent it from being detected at an early stage. And despite restrictions on the movement of people, those whose symptoms are not atypical will be able to spread the disease to other regions and continents, predicted by the CIA.

Such predictions fuel conspiracy theories. For example, billionaire Bill Gates at a security conference in Munich in 2017 said that states did not give due attention to the connection between sanitary conditions and international security. He predicted then that even during his lifetime there would be a global pandemic with high mortality, urging them to prepare for it, as the military prepares for war.

And in France, the strategic security documents also mentioned the sanitary threat. So, in 2008, the risk of a pandemic there was assessed as “ medium probability ”. It was noted that new epidemics can provoke major social upheavals.

In 2013, this risk was already assessed as increased, noting that the movement of people and goods, the concentration of people in megacities and the shortcomings of the health care system are creating new crises. At the same time, interspecific viruses and viruses that have leaked from laboratories are mentioned there.

However, despite all these warnings, the crisis could not be avoided. And experts attribute this not to the quality of analytics, but to how difficult it is to convince those who are responsible for making decisions.

So if the problem of epidemics was in the analytical documents, then it was not considered as important as other issues, like the military threat, terrorism. And in the same way, according to experts, much remains to be done for the cybersphere, sanitary and economic security.

However, the military periodically conducts exercises to combat bacteriological threats. The French army has had such measures since the time of the H1N1 epidemic, Le Figaro notes.


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The article is written and prepared by our foreign editors from different countries around the world – material edited and published by Ordo News staff in our US newsroom press.