According to him, the latest forecasts from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which predicted in early March that a prolonged and severe epidemic of coronavirus would reduce global growth to only 1.4% this year, already appear outdated and overly optimistic.
In November, before the start of the epidemic, the OECD still estimated the increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) at 2.9% this year, already the level since the financial crisis of 2008-2009.
“Even if we do not have a global recession, we will have zero or negative growth in many economies, including the largest, so (…) it will take longer to restart,” explains M. Gurria.
According to him, the uncertainties linked to the pandemic, which has paralyzed activity worldwide while many countries are entering containment or tightening their measures, means that the economic shock is already more severe than after the terrorist attacks. September 11, 2001 or the 2008 financial crisis.
On Saturday, Gurria called for an “internationally coordinated” effort to try to mitigate the massive impact of the pandemic.
“This is the third and largest economic, financial and social shock of the 21st century and it requires a modern global effort similar to the Marshall Plan and the New Deal – combined”, to avoid a “prolonged recession”, had argued the responsible.
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