When will the pandemic end? Possible scenarios

US, WASHINGTON (ORDO NEWS) — As the coronavirus continues to infect the countries of the world, and the latter, one after another, demonstrate an inability to resist it, unpleasant thoughts come to mind about the possibilities of the world community to curb the pandemic. Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Is it possible to predict the end of this crisis, and how exactly will it end?

As soon as the first signs of the spread of the virus appeared, international efforts to curb this process did not stop. These include the search for effective drugs or a vaccine that can stop the pandemic announced by the World Health Organization (WHO).

However, despite the strict restrictions adopted, the coronavirus covers all new territories. Where the situation would seem to have stabilized, new victims appear, while other countries have actually announced surrender to the virus. Especially vividly can we observe the weakness of health systems, identified even at the level of developed states. Just look at the available statistics.

Again the same question arises: are there signs of crisis ending on the horizon? When will we all return to normal?

Many experts and studies have tried to answer these questions. In this publication we want to present some scenarios for the development of the situation.

The crisis may continue

Let’s start with an article by former US Department of Homeland Security officer Juliet Kaim published by The Atlantic. According to her, the current crisis, affecting various aspects of people’s lives, will last a long time.

In an article entitled “A crisis can last 18 months. Get ready. ”Kaim writes:“ You should not expect the crisis to be completed in the near future, quick, because decisions are made on quarantine and border closure, and this will be a long time.”

According to the author, there are two main questions that will increasingly worry the population, namely: when will the epidemic end and when will they be able to return to normal?

The answer to the last question depends not only on scientific facts, but also on moral and political considerations that no one wants to discuss openly now.

Regarding the slowdown and the end of the epidemic, Kaim believes that, due to public health conditions, talking about the end of the coronavirus epidemic does not make sense until 18 months have passed. In her opinion, the only way to resolve the current crisis is to develop a vaccine against the deadly virus, which takes some time.

Strict measures

A study published by Imperial College London said it could take half a year to fight a new coronavirus.

According to the authors, it is necessary to immediately take tough measures that will take several months to mitigate the damage from the epidemic, and life after the appearance of coronavirus will never be like life before it.

The study emphasizes the need to develop the so-called “herd immunity” to fight the virus. According to this concept, as you know, a large number of citizens should be allowed to become infected with it, since the body will begin to develop immunity to the disease, and everything can quickly end.

As stated in the work, in a number of aspects the virus poses a greater threat to developed countries than states with weak or completely destroyed health care systems, as richer nations become more vulnerable during times of such disasters, and their population requires a certain level of treatment.

Crisis management strategy

The British agency BBC predicts that the pandemic will be very long-lasting. Obviously, the current strategy of isolating large groups of the population is not effective in the long run, as this will have disastrous social and economic consequences.

In this case, countries need a “exit strategy,” that is, a way to remove restrictions and return to normal life, despite the possibility of increasing the number of infected citizens.

“We faced a big problem from the point of view of the strategy for combating the disease and overcoming the crisis, and it is not in any country in the world. This is a serious scientific and social problem, ”says Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist at the University of Edinburgh.

Suggested Solutions

In conclusion, experts suggest three key ways to counteract coronavirus:

The first is the development of a vaccine and treatment method to fight the virus. In other words, we will stay at the point where we are at a given time, and this will last from a year to a year and a half. A very long time, given the accepted unprecedented social constraints.

The second way is the development of collective immunity through infection of a sufficient number of people. In this regard, Dr. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said: “In the end, if the situation develops this way for another two years, a sufficient part of society will be infected, which will provide some degree of protection.”

The third way is to constantly change the behavior of our society. It is about getting used to and adapting to measures taken today to combat the virus. Professor Woolhouse considers this option the most preferable: “The third option is to constantly change our lifestyle, which will allow us to maintain a low level of infection.”

This may include maintaining some procedures that have already taken effect, or rigorous testing and isolation of patients to avoid any outbreaks.


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The article is written and prepared by our foreign editors from different countries around the world – material edited and published by Ordo News staff in our US newsroom press.