US, WASHINGTON (ORDO NEWS) — The negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the US job market should be even more evident this week. Friday’s NFP report on non-farm wages for the month of March is expected to show a sharp decline against the backdrop of business closures in many cities and states, which has caused a massive wave of layoffs.
Thursday’s report on unemployment benefit claims will also be in the center of attention after the previous week’s figures hit historic highs. President Donald Trump‘s response will be closely watched to see if there is any indication of his penchant for relaxing restrictions, despite the current health care crisis. Waiting, Chinese PMI data may indicate that the world‘s second largest economy is starting to recover after falling since the start of the year and that the first quarter of 2020 is coming to an end. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
Impact of the coronavirus on the American labor market
Because of the IP for the US non-farm jobs report in March, it likely preceded the worst of the labor market impact. Economists expect Friday’s figures to indicate the loss of 100,000 jobs.
A significant overshoot of this figure and the unprecedented $ 2,000 billion stimulus package approved by Congress could suddenly begin to seem insufficient. The government’s plan includes a $ 500 billion fund to help hard-hit industries and a comparable amount to finance direct payments to American families of up to $ 3,000 each.
Before that, Thursday’s report on jobless claims should show another massive wave of new jobless claims in the week of March 28, after hitting a record 3.28 million the previous week.
Trump recalls remarks about faster reopening
Investors will follow developments in the White House closely after President Trump appeared to distance himself from remarks he made last week on the need to revive the economy by Sunday Easter.
President Trump said on Saturday that he was not sure the U.S. would reopen by April 12 after business closings in major cities across the country.
Some investors believe that a faster return to work would boost the US economy, but health experts say a patchwork of random restrictions between states could worsen the impact of the coronavirus. Cases in the United States surpassed 115,000 on Saturday,
Trump, who worries about the economic repercussions of a prolonged shutdown of non-essential businesses, has accused his Democratic critics of wanting to keep the economy in paralysis to improve their chances of being ousted in the November 3 elections.
Chinese PMI data
Chinese factories’ profits from January to February have already bottomed out in a decade, and Tuesday’s PMI survey data for March will most likely reveal more pain. And like everywhere else, job losses accumulate, regardless of the number of cheap loans offered to businesses.
Although China appears to have contained the coronavirus, allowing work and travel to recover major economic damage may still take time. With an exponential increase in infections in the United States, Europe and other markets to which China exports, and with disorganized supply chains, China is hit by a supply-demand shock.
Euro area data
Much economic data is expected in the euro area this week and Monday’s economic sentiment data for March will provide insight into how businesses and consumers assess the situation, even before the new restrictive measures implemented since the survey was carried out.
Falling oil prices mean March inflation will have fallen, while retail sales and unemployment reports are for February, and will therefore not yet show the full extent of the economic impact of the measures put in place to try to contain the coronavirus pandemic.
First trimester ends
Few will regret the end of the first quarter of the year. Fears of a war between the United States and Iran have given way to the coronavirus pandemic which, according to JPMorgan analysts (NYSE: JPM ), will have caused a 12% contraction in the world economy over of the three months preceding the month of March. This quarter was marked by the most brutal global share collapse since the Great Depression, compounded by a 60% drop in the price of oil.
The start of the second quarter may not bring much relief, as the coronavirus continues to spread rapidly and now keeps large parts of the global economy down. Banks also hastened to cut their forecast for the second quarter, suggesting further turbulence in the financial markets.
But markets have rebounded and could even end the first quarter on a spike after governments pledged $ 5 trillion to stimulate the economy and major central banks cut rates and started buying assets . Investors will monitor if infection rates reach a peak, but there is still no certainty as to when the coronavirus will be brought under control.
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The article is written and prepared by our foreign editors from different countries around the world – material edited and published by Ordo News staff in our US newsroom press.