What is the probability of finding intelligent extraterrestrial life in the Milky Way

(ORDO NEWS) — Physicist Claudio Grimaldi believes that Bayes’ theorem is capable of answering this question, which makes it possible to determine the probability of the realization of an event, provided that some other event interdependent with it was recorded.

So, imagine a sphere with a radius of 1000 light years, in the center of which is the Earth.

If we scan this area and find at least one alien civilization, then we can be 95% sure that tens, hundreds or even thousands of “brothers in mind” live in the Milky Way.

If these searches do not bear fruit, then we will have to increase the radius of the “search sphere” to 40,000 light years. Nothing again?

So there is no doubt that the Milky Way belongs to us and only to us. But! Despite this, according to Claudio Grimaldi, there will still be a 10 percent chance that progressive aliens live somewhere in deep space.

Unfortunately, at present, humanity does not have the technology that would allow searches at such distances, but we are moving forward confidently, so it’s all just a matter of time.

What is scarier: to understand that we are alone in the Milky Way, or even, probably, in the Universe, or to find out that there are countless highly developed aliens around?

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