What if countries did not introduce quarantine measures? New study reveals terrible alternative

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(ORDO NEWS) — Suppose that nowhere in the world have quarantine measures been introduced in response to the coronavirus pandemic: there is a high probability that hundreds of millions of people would have already become infected with COVID-19.

Such results were obtained thanks to a new study by the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley. In a study published Monday , the lab examined the effects of more than 1,700 coronavirus prevention measures in six countries: the United States, China, South Korea, Italy, France, and Iran.

Restrictions included travel bans, school closures, suspension of religious services, cancellation of public events, and self-isolation.

According to their estimates, without any restrictions on the movement and interaction of people in the United States, the number of infected would double every two days from March 3 to April 6. This means that about 60 million people would get COVID-19. ( So far, the United States has reported 1.9 million cases .)

According to the study, quarantine measures in China were even more successful. Researchers found that policies from January 16 to March 5 in China saved some 285 million people from the disease.

China’s earliest restrictions were imposed in Wuhan, where an outbreak arose. A March study showed that the closure of Wuhan on January 23 prevented tens of thousands of possible infections throughout Hubei. According to the study, without isolation, the number of cases in Hubei would be 65 percent higher.

Quarantine measures also prevented about 54 million infections in Iran, 49 million in Italy, 45 million in France and 38 million in South Korea, according to a study.

“Deploying infection control policies in all six countries has significantly and significantly slowed the pandemic,” the researchers write.

A group of researchers in Italy recently determined that the closure of the country prevented about 200,000 hospital admissions from February 21 (when the first case was reported in Italy) until March 25.

In another study published on Monday by Imperial College London, it is estimated that restrictions and isolation prevented 3.1 million deaths in 11 European countries from the time these measures were introduced from March to May 4.

We cannot say with certainty that current measures can control the epidemic in Europe, ”the researchers write. “However, if current trends continue, there is reason for optimism.”


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