US, WASHINGTON (ORDO NEWS) — Now no one is aware of the reality that has developed in the global economy and which will take shape in the next year or two. No one understands anything, no matter what. Even the all-knowing IMF constantly worsens its forecasts because it understands nothing and only reflects on worsening indicators.
The latest IMF forecast – this year, global GDP will fall by 4.9 percent. This size of the economy is equal to the GDP of Germany. That is, the whole of Germany will disappear this year! But maybe two of Germany at once. After all, no one knows how long the pandemic will last, how strong it will be in the future and, most importantly, how billions of people will behave: whether they will fly by air, travel by train, go to restaurants, relax at resorts, go to universities, go to hospitals , going to gyms, etc. This is all unpredictable.
But one thing I can say for sure. Of course, there will be no return to the economy to what it was at the end of 2019, as many politicians and economists expect and predict. There will be no, as many predict, V- or L- models for overcoming the crisis. This is all the naive transfer of the laws of the cyclical crisis to the crisis caused by the pandemic. This is an attempt to compare green with sour.
What will happen to the global economy in the future, no one knows. All forecasts for a period of more than 3 months are simply ridiculous. The IMF, forecasting three years in advance, just puffs out and looks ridiculous.
Intuitively, I feel that the global, and primarily Western, economy is entering a completely new qualitative state. Prior to covid-19, the Western economy was completely lent to its ears and was drowning in debt, interest rates were already at zero.
And how will it survive if half of the enterprises, restaurants, cafes, clubs can now load up to 50% of their capacities? Half of the economy will be unprofitable and in 1-1.5 years the bankruptcy process will begin – first of all businesses, and then the financial sector.
I think that over the course of 5-6 years, global GDP will “lose weight” by 25-30%. And this, you understand, will be a completely different world. Here is my forecast, or rather a feeling.
And most importantly, the United States, of course, will overcome the crisis through war. It’s just that the USA does not know how to do it, for them it’s the cheapest and fastest way. America is the only country on the planet that can afford to overcome the crisis through war.
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