The global temperature on the planet by the end of the century may rise by almost 2.5 degrees

(ORDO NEWS) — Today, people around the world are increasingly talking about extreme weather events, such as the heat waves that have swept Europe over the past few years, wildfires, landslides, droughts, floods and other less visible phenomena. The reason for such climatic changes, as established by the scientific community, lies in human activities: just a little bit more and there will be 8 billion of us, and there is no talk of stopping the extraction of fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, harmful emissions into the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, methane, etc., contribute to an increase in the average temperature on Earth. For example, a new report from Climate Action Tracker says that by the end of the century, the global temperature on our planet could rise by almost 2.5 degrees.

The analysis showed that achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement will require more stringent goals on the part of a number of countries. The researchers also note that the policies of many countries have not yet lived up to promises. The data obtained during the analysis showed that if the necessary measures are not taken by world leaders, the planet will warm by about 2.9 ° C by the end of the century.

What is happening to the Earth’s climate?

Climate change is not really a new phenomenon. Scientists have been studying the link between human activities and climate change since the 1800s, but it was not until the 1950s that they discovered evidence pointing to the link. Since then, the amount of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases) in the atmosphere has grown steadily, surging in the late 1980s, when the summer of 1988 was the warmest on record. (Many records have been broken since then.)

But climate change is not synonymous with global warming. The term “global warming” entered the lexicon in the 1950s, but gained popularity several decades later, when more people started talking about a warming climate (except that climate change encompasses more than just a rise in temperature). The point is that air emissions also affect sea level rise, animal habitats, biodiversity, and weather conditions.

Despite the efforts of forward-thinking thinkers to colonize Mars, such as the founder of SpaceX Elon Musk, the Earth will remain our home for the foreseeable future, and the more impact anthropogenic activities have on the climate, the less habitable it will become. It is estimated that our planet has already warmed by about one degree Celsius (or two degrees Fahrenheit) since the industrial revolution began around the 1750s, although tracking climate change began fifty years later. While the numbers may seem small, rising temperatures have already led to unprecedented wildfires, hurricanes, floods and droughts.

Climatic risks

A key feature of climate change is that it presents many interacting risks. That being said, the researchers note that responses to climate change can also have a significant impact on risk.

Evidence from recent studies, The Conversation writes, suggests that some of the most serious impacts of climate change, such as deadly heat waves or sudden collapse of ecosystems, are highly dependent on interactions between sectors and regions.

For example, a 2 ° C global warming is projected to reduce yields of major crops by 5% -20%. The complex interactions between heat and drought can increase crop risks. Typically, in climate change assessments, risk is viewed as a combination of three components – hazard, vulnerability and impact. This is the approach used today by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Average temperature rise on Earth

Recently, US President Joe Biden gathered 40 world leaders at a virtual climate summit, during which he announced a new goal of reducing US greenhouse gas emissions by at least half by 2030. The pledge, combined with other promises made by the US, EU countries, China and Japan, has cut projected end-of-century warming 0.2 ° C below previous estimates, 2.4 ° C above pre-industrial levels, the Climate Action report says. Tracker (CAT).

According to the authors of the report, the estimate of warming under current global policy is 2.9 ° C – still almost double what it should be, and governments must act urgently. It is noteworthy that the United States, 27 EU countries, China and Japan made the largest contribution to the decrease in the projected warming. But the leaders of India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey spoke at the summit, but none of them announced the setting of new goals in the fight against the global rise in temperatures.

New climate targets announced by the US and other countries in recent weeks, research has shown, will lead to a temperature increase of about 2.4 ° C by 2100. This is 0.2 ° C better than the previous forecast of 2.6 ° C, but still significantly above the Paris target of keeping temperature rise no more than 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels, with the intention of limiting the warming of the planet to 1.5 ° C. …

Analysts say the goals will remain within reach if countries develop better strategies and new policies to meet their commitments. For example, achieving the Paris goals will require tougher measures from China, the world’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.

“Only if all governments go into emergency and take the necessary action can global emissions be halved in the next 10 years,” the researchers write.


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