(ORDO NEWS) — In an article published in the Astronomical Journal, a scientist from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne discusses why the Earth has not yet received a radio signal from an extraterrestrial civilization.
The article also gives an estimate of the potential likelihood of when we might hear the signal, along with recommendations that may help in the search.
“One of the interesting findings of this study is that it bridges the gap between two popular but opposing views,” says Dr. Claudio Grimaldi, study author.
“At first glance, techno emissions pervade our galaxy, and by persevering in our search, we will eventually find them.
And according to the second, extraterrestrial technological life is so rare that it can be considered practically non-existent. If I had to choose, I would choose the first option over the second.
However, there may be a third, less extreme possibility that should be considered if we are to get a fuller picture.
Since we started our unsuccessful search only about 60 years ago, it is quite possible that the Earth has not been illuminated by techno signals since then, although other regions of the galaxy may have been illuminated.
Dr. Grimaldi gives statistical estimates of when a radio signal can get past the Earth. He calls this the “intersection event”.
Grimaldi claims that with a 95% probability, this event will occur no earlier than in 100,000 years.
With a 50% probability, it will happen in no less than 60 – 1800 years, and with a 20% probability – not earlier than in 240 years.
“In a silent bubble scenario, a wait time of at least 60 years is very optimistic,” notes Dr. Grimaldi.
“Furthermore, even after this period of time, the fact that the Earth can be illuminated by technological signals is a necessary but not sufficient condition for their detection, since they may be missed by our telescopes.”
The results of the study provide a wide range of probabilities for detecting a techno signal in the future.
And because the research focuses on searches conducted exclusively by the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) project, Grimaldi makes recommendations for improving search strategies.
“If it is true that it may take several years, if not centuries, before a techno signal is potentially detected, then perhaps it is better to focus on the SETI collaborative research, that is, on the search for techno signals from data collected by telescopes doing other activities, instead of in order to invest resources and telescope time in an active SETI search,” says Dr. Grimaldi.
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