(ORDO NEWS) — For decades, overpopulation was one of the main products of dystopia, and scientists predicted the uncontrolled spread of humanity, which would irreversibly reduce the resources of the Earth. A fresh look at the numbers draws a completely different scenario.
According to the research team, another 20 billion people will be added to Earth by 2060. After only a few decades, rates will decline as fertility declines, and countries such as Japan and Italy will lose up to half their population.
It is difficult to say how much this general decline will affect society and the planet.
“Although declining populations will reduce carbon emissions, with increasing numbers of older people and fewer young people, economic problems will arise,” says Stein Emil Vollset, of the new study, from the Health Assessment Institute (IHME) in Washington, DC.
In a new study, Stein and his team used data collected to measure population growth around the world.
Their results show that today’s figure of 7.8 billion people will grow until around 2064, and will reach 9.7 billion. After the population decreases, and by the end of the century we will return to 8.8 billion.
Prediction of the population in any region depends on the availability of a model that can accurately take into account various constraints and incentives that affect the number of children born during life.
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