Scientists predict that people will land on an asteroid by 2073, and on Jupiter in 2103

(ORDO NEWS) — Jonathan Jiang, a researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, and colleagues published their findings in a study titled “The Impact of Economic Constraints on Projected Timeframes for Crewed Deep Space Exploration.”

Their model is based on an economic analysis of the rate at which space budgets have increased over time and the rate of technology development since the start of the space age.

In the study, scientists analyzed NASA’s budget since the organization’s inception, pointing to peaks corresponding to a significant increase in spending.

The first happened when the United States and the Soviet Union were actively involved in the space race, the second happened in the 1990s regarding the decision to partner with the private sector to develop the technology that would replace the shuttles. And the third came in 2018, which mentions the Artemis lunar program and sending people to Mars.

“The budget allocated by the US government for the needs of the armed forces is 801 billion dollars. NASA’s budget for peaceful space exploration is only $24 billion. This means that most of the resources, technology and funds are used to develop weapons that will kill other people,” says Jiang.

The second factor to be taken into account during forecasting is technological progress. According to the article, it is implicitly assumed that technologies related to space exploration will continue to develop at a rapid pace, thereby continuing further research and development.

The last factor used is the radius of human activity outside the Earth. The Moon is the closest celestial body to Earth, and astronauts have already traveled that distance with proven spacecraft technology landing on the body at a distance of 0.0026 astronomical units.

The next step will be a lunar base, NASA’s Artemis mission and lunar exploration program in the 2020s. The creation of a base on the Moon will play an important role in preparing for manned flights to Mars.

Humans will then be able to reach Mars around 2037, after which the radius of human activity will increase to 0.3763 ​​AU.

If this mission is successful, a base could be established on Mars to support further crewed exploration programs for other celestial bodies in the solar system.

According to the article, if all goes well, humans could land on asteroids in 2073, Jupiter in 2103, and Saturn in 2132.

According to the research team: “The results so far suggest that the worlds of our solar system, which throughout human history were just points of light in the night sky, will soon be within our reach.”


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