(ORDO NEWS) — The next two years will be the most sultry in history, say climatologists of the British analogue.
The cause of the impending heat is well known to scientists – the El Niño phenomenon. It and its counterpart La Niña are the main drivers of the Earth‘s climate system.
El Niño and La Niña are abnormal temperature fluctuations on the surface of the ocean.
When La Niño “turns on”, the water in the equatorial zones of the ocean cools, when the El Niño time comes, the water heats up.
With all the ensuing consequences for the climate on the planet. The last time “El” ruled in 2016, and it still remains the hottest in the history of meteorological observations.
The “La” who replaced him worked for several years in a row, and now the turn of his opposite phase comes. El Niño is likely to manifest itself in the second half of the year – between August and October.
The natural phenomenon will gradually “fire up”, which will lead to an unprecedentedly warm next winter and a record-breaking hot summer in 2024. This is the forecast of British scientists.
Now I would not be in a hurry with such unambiguous forecasts that the British published.
Indeed, La Nina is ending, but it is not at all necessary that El Nino will begin immediately.
There are long neutral phases between them. The situation should clear up in the spring.
In general, one should be extremely careful with forecasts. Today, science is able to predict the weather with a high probability for a week, with an average probability – for a month ahead.
Given the already obvious trends, it is possible to predict the climate quite accurately for the next 15-20 years.
But the next 1-5 years are the most difficult to predict. Here the probability of errors is very high. Experience shows that often predictions do not come true.
As for the direct influence of El Niño on the climate, countries located closer to the equatorial zones feel it to the greatest extent, but in Europe the effect is not so pronounced.
Finally, one of the effects of El Niño should be noted. It is able to change the dynamics of the atmosphere to cause many long-term blocking anticyclones.
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