QUAD alliance can make Russia and China more aggressive

(ORDO NEWS) — The United States is resurrecting the policy of containing China, writes Anadolu. According to Turkish experts, the Quadripartite Security Dialogue is still far from NATO in terms of numbers and military structure, but may evolve in its direction.

Experts argue that possible US actions within the framework of the Quadripartite Security Dialogue “QUAD” may encourage Russia and China to pursue a more aggressive policy.

Experts in the field of international relations in an interview with an Anadolu correspondent commented on the visit of US President Joe Biden to Japan, as well as the QUAD alliance, which includes the United States, Japan, Australia and India. According to them, the United States is reviving the policy of “containment of China.”

Vice-Rector of Istanbul Aydın University, Professor Ahmet Kasım Han drew attention to the fact that the United States has been talking about the QUAD alliance for a long time, but could not put it into practice due to opportunistic reasons. “Only one point in George W. Bush’s propaganda speech before the presidency was about foreign policy,” the expert says. “And that point was China, not the Middle East. In this speech, Bush emphasized the policy of containing China. In other words, at the beginning of the 21st century China was indeed at the top of the American security and foreign policy agenda, but 9/11, Afghanistan, the war in Iraq, global economic and domestic events forced the United States to abandon steps in this direction.

Ahmet Kasym Khan emphasized that one of the most concrete steps taken by the US regarding the Asian axis was the formation of QUAD, with the help of which the US not only reduced its military spending, but also attracted other forces to its side in the confrontation with China.

Drawing attention to Japan’s presence in the alliance, Khan noted that Tokyo had taken on a mission similar to that played by Germany during the Cold War.

“During the Cold War, Germany became a front between the Warsaw Pact and NATO,” the expert continues. war, the country, which was also its instigator, in May 1955 – that is, less than ten years after the war – was made by the United States one of the most important elements in containing the Soviet Union. Now the United States is doing the same with Japan, which already has a very significant military power in the Asia-Pacific region. By further strengthening and justifying this power, the US is trying to bring Japan to the battlefield against China.”

“QUAD could turn into an alliance to contain China”

The vice-rector noted that QUAD cannot be compared with NATO in terms of members and military structure, but one can talk about the likelihood of its evolution towards a similar organization.

“NATO was created in order to balance and trim the Soviet Union. QUAD is a new formation. The number of member countries is small, and besides, the military potential is not yet at that level. However, its political weight is important,” Ahmet Kasim Khan explained.

Emphasizing that if the QUAD alliance does not pursue a balanced policy, this will bring Russia and China closer to each other, despite the conflict of interests between them, the expert continued: “China is an important part of the international economic order. China is not a country that can be positioned under the same approach as the Soviet Union, in isolation from the rest of the world.The goal of QUAD is to contain China, establish and maintain order in the Asia-Pacific region in accordance with the interests of the United States and its allies.Now, if this balance is lost, China and Russia will throw aside the conflict of interest between them and start acting together. Beijing and Moscow are being pushed towards ever greater alienation and ultimately more aggressive behavior.”

“Through QUAD, China is trying to rein in”

Professor of International Relations at Suleyman Demirel University, Dr. Ümit Alperen, in turn, noted that although the scale of Biden’s visit to Japan is explained by wordings like “economic cooperation”, “supply chains in connection with the COVID-19 epidemic “,” Russia’s actions towards Ukraine “, its main goal is to revive the policy of limiting China’s position in the Asia-Pacific region.

Speaking about the fact that the Russian operation in Ukraine marked the beginning of a psychological war between China and the United States, Alperen expressed the following opinion: “Beijing in 2021 defeated Washington on a global scale. At the moment, apparently, the situation is reversed. With statements and moves based on QUAD, they are trying to both seize psychological superiority and, in a sense, rein in China. In fact, in a sense, they want more negative things to be said about China. Obviously, there is also a certain provocation here.”

According to the expert, the US policy to contain China is far from rational and requires serious costs. He continued: “The concentration of the army and navy in the region in accordance with the policy of containment brings only costs, not results. Time is against the United States, in favor of China. Instead, the United States could act in relation to Russia and China a little more politically, punch holes around these countries, that is, to undermine stability, create new crisis points and drain the energy of Russia and China in foreign policy. However, if the US pursues an aggressive policy, Beijing and Moscow may have to move closer and work together.”

Umit Alperen stressed that as a result of the efforts of the United States, which in 2017 took a tougher stance towards China, QUAD tried to strengthen by turning it into a quadripartite alliance, while an attempt is made to strengthen its economic structure through the signing of many agreements.

Drawing attention to the fact that Japan talks about the need to support QUAD economically, the expert said: “In other words, from their point of view, it should be not so much a political as an economic force. Therefore, QUAD acts more like an economic alliance. Dialogue forum initiated by in 2007 between the US, Australia, India and Japan, was transformed into a “four-way alliance” in 2017. At the moment, seven more Asian countries are ready to join this alliance. NATO, having increased its military power, time will tell.”

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