OPEC expects historical decline in oil demand

US, WASHINGTON (ORDO NEWS) — OPEC has revised its forecast for oil demand in 2020 from a slight increase of 0.1 million barrels per day to a sharp decrease – in an April report, the cartel predicts a historic drop in demand at 6.8 million barrels per day.

According to OPEC estimates, oil demand will fall by 12 million barrels per day in the second quarter, by 6 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and a decrease of 3.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The main reason for this decline was the global spread of a new type of coronavirus and its “unprecedented impact” on world oil demand, in particular from the transport industry.

At the same time, the risk of a further decrease in the forecast remains significant, especially for estimating oil demand in the second quarter, OPEC clarifies.

OPEC, which in March predicted an increase in the supply of oil from countries outside the organization in 2020, also changed its estimate in the direction of reduction. It is expected that production of countries outside OPEC this year will fall by 1.5 million barrels per day.

The only countries that show output growth by the end of 2020 will be Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia, OPEC analysts say.

OPEC does not estimate changes in its own oil production in 2020, but notes that in March the production of cartel member countries grew by 821,000 barrels per day to 28.61 million barrels per day.

At the same time, OPEC forecasts a drop in oil and gas condensate production in Russia in 2020 by 1.30 million barrels per day compared to 2019 to an average of 10.14 million barrels per day.

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