NOAA predicts abnormally strong Atlantic Hurricane season: 7th consecutive year

(ORDO NEWS) — Eastern US should brace for another wave of tropical hurricanes this year, experts warn. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be more active than average for the seventh year in a row, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

There is a 70 percent chance that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends November 30, will bring 14 to 21 named storms, or storms with winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) or higher; six to 10 hurricanes with winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or higher; and three to six major hurricanes with 111 mph (179 km/h) winds, according to NOAA.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the first hurricane of the year will be named Alex, and the next four will be Bonnie, Colin, Daniel and Earl. Only 21 names are assigned to storms each year, beginning with the letters A through W, after which Greek letters are assigned instead.

The new forecast means there is a chance that all 21 storm names will be used for the third year in a row; 21 storms formed in 2021, and a record 30 storms formed in 2020.

The current La Niña event, which has led to warmer waters in the Atlantic and Caribbean regions, is partly responsible for the above-average forecast for the season.

La Niña, which means “little girl” in Spanish, is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean in which waters in the tropical eastern Pacific are colder than average and the trade winds are stronger than usual. This could affect weather around the world and lead to more severe hurricane seasons, according to NOAA.

Earlier forecasts by researchers at the University of Arizona on April 28 suggested that La Niña could dissipate, meaning the hurricane season is only slightly above average.

(Ocean surface temperature is a major factor in determining the size, frequency, and strength of hurricanes. The warmer the water, the stronger the hurricane, NOAA says.)

Fortunately, on May 18, NOAA announced that the Central Pacific hurricane season, which also begins on June 1, is likely to be less active than average. In the Central Pacific hurricane region, only two to four tropical cyclones are forecast, while the average number is four to five.

This is because the La Niña event is triggering a wind pattern that will help prevent the growth of storms in the region, the statement said.

Even without the storm-producing La Niña, hurricane seasons are becoming more active as global sea surface temperatures have risen as a result of climate change.

“We must refocus on a new reality to cope with these environmental changes and how they affect us every day,” Eric Adams, Mayor of New York City, said at a May 24 NOAA press briefing at the Office of Emergency Management. situations in New York.

New York City was one of the areas hardest hit by Hurricane Ida, the largest hurricane of 2021, which peaked at 150 mph (240 km/h) winds, affected nine states and was clearly visible from over 1 million miles away. from the earth.

By the time Ida was done away with, the hurricane’s winds, fallout, storm surge and tornadoes had caused an estimated $75 billion in damage, NOAA officials said in April this year.

Individual hurricanes have also become stronger due to climate change. In February 2021, a study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters found that Bermuda’s hurricane-force wind speeds have more than doubled over the past 66 years due to rising ocean temperatures in the region.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season turned out to be even more active than predicted. Only time will tell if NOAA’s predictions for this year are correct, but experts say people should start preparing for hurricanes now.

“It’s very important to remember that it only takes one storm to damage your home, neighborhood and community,” NOAA administrator Richard Spinrad said at a briefing.

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