(ORDO NEWS) — Scientists from NASA‘s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and American universities have estimated the likelihood that civilizations in the universe can reach such a high technological level that they will meet each other.
The forecast of scientists is generally pessimistic: such a meeting is unlikely, since civilization is likely to destroy itself without reaching the required level. But there is still a chance.
Scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory explained in their paper why they believe we have never encountered intelligent extraterrestrial life and most likely never will.
They argue that any civilization (including ours) is highly likely to destroy itself or die from natural threats before it reaches a point in development when interstellar contact becomes possible.
The scientists titled their work: “Avoiding the ‘Great Filter’: Extraterrestrial Life and the Future of Humanity in the Universe”
The theory of the “Great Filter”, built by scientists, claims that all civilizations that existed throughout the life of the Universe simply did not have time to make contact with earthlings (although, perhaps, some of them were in contact with each other).
Scientists analyze and refine the so-called ” Drake formula “, which gives an estimate of the number of civilizations in the Galaxy.
The main conclusion they come to is that the development of civilizations is uneven. Periods (quite long) of more or less calm development are followed by “passing through the filter”, when various problems (both man-made and natural) can destroy civilization.
And the most difficult barrier is the “Great Filter”, which almost no civilization can pass. Earthlings are now approaching this “great filter”.
The authors argue that natural disasters an asteroid or a pandemic, and man-made a nuclear disaster, anthropogenic warming, or uncontrolled artificial intelligence can threaten earthly civilization.
Scientists write that none of these threats are specifically terrestrial, they can (and most likely will) pursue any intelligent life form and the civilization it has built.
But still, scientists admit that people still have a chance to slip through the “great filter” and avoid extinction.
“The key to successfully overcoming the “great filter” for humanity will be to identify destructive qualities in oneself and neutralize them,” write the lead author of the work, Jonathan Jiang and his colleagues.
There is a chance, but in order to use it, the cooperation of all people on Earth is necessary. Otherwise, everything will be as usual: our civilization will perish all alone, without meeting anyone in the Universe.
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