US, WASHINGTON (ORDO NEWS) — North Korea was once again in the spotlight. No, Pyongyang did not launch another missile and did not conduct nuclear tests – the situation could be much more serious. On April 15, Kim Jong-un (perhaps for the first time for his cadence) missed the birthday celebrations of his grandfather – the founder of the DPRK, Kim Il Sung.
It is clear that there were no press releases from Pyongyang on this subject – but the South Korean media, citing their sources, reported that the North Korean leader could not attend because he was hospitalized due to problems with the cardiovascular system.
No one confirms these data at the official level – even in Seoul. The Blue House (the residence of the head of South Korea) responds with phrases from the series “we don’t know anything, leave everything behind us” – and it’s understandable why. President Moon Jae In has put a lot of effort and nerve into building a working relationship with Kim Jong Un, and any speculation from the lips of senior South Korean officials could be a serious blow to this relationship.
Not only the Blue House is kept silent, but also the White. Usually, Donald Trump does not go into his pocket for a word, does not hesitate to be rude and insult his political opponents – but here he is rude only to CNN, saying that he does not trust reports of journalists about Kim’s illness. And he adds that he wishes to his North Korean colleague, with whom he has developed excellent relations, “good luck”.
Trump‘s politeness is explained very simply: the US president really needs the DPRK leader to be alive, healthy and adequate. Yes, Kim Jong-un is a dictator. Yes, he is threatening the United States (as well as its regional allies – Japan and South Korea) with nuclear weapons.
However, the United States really must pray for the well-being of the North Korean leader, because his health problems can lead to serious problems for the health of the United States. And not just the United States. Now, amid rumors about Kim’s illness and possible death, experts have tried to look beyond the horizon and evaluate the consequences of this death.
And if they are experts, and not some frostbitten human rights activists, then their verdict is almost the same – this death will not bring any positive results to North Korea, the United States or other countries.
On the contrary, it will lead to serious internal upheaval in North Korea, a sharp increase in its aggressiveness, and will put an end to the prospects for a peaceful solution to the North Korean nuclear issue – the solutions that are now being jointly addressed by Donald Trump, Moon Jae In and Kim Jong Un.
If someone is a fan of the Hollywood movie “Interview” (about the killing of Kim Jong-un by American journalists) and believes that after the dictator leaves North Korea will turn into stable democracy, he will be disappointed. DPRK is an absolutist hereditary monarchy built on the most powerful, in a sense, sacred cult of the leader’s personality.
In such a system, the leader’s departure from life is always a serious stress for the entire state and the power vertical. Her inheritance never went without problems – and this despite the fact that in both previous versions (after the death of the DPRK founder Kim Il Sung in 1993 and his son Kim Jong Il in 2011), there were active adult heirs, officially approved by the deceased leaders.
Kim Jong-un has no such heirs – his oldest child is about 10 years old. The older brother was killed on his orders, the middle brother has long been out of politics. A sister is called a potential heir, but a woman is unlikely to get absolute power in North Korean society. Moreover, no collective “crisis management” at the clan level (as was the case in Turkmenistan after the death of Turkmenbashi I – Saparmurat Niyazov) or special services (following the example of the Uzbeks who quickly took control of the country after Islam Karimov left) is not and is not expected in the DPRK.
The entire management system is built under Kim Jong-un, any alternative horizontal self-organization is fraught with executions for its participants. Therefore, it is very likely that after Kim Jong-un’s sudden departure, North Korea expects serious internal chaos – chaos, which is always fraught with increased state aggression.
Without self-affirmation or jumping
And here we must not forget that we are not talking about herbivore Sweden or even galloping Ukraine – we are talking about a country with a powerful army, a militarized population and an extremely low threshold for perceiving any external threat. To answer this “threat”, even some provocative actions on the part of Seoul or Tokyo are not necessary – the aspirant’s desire for the role of the head of the DPRK is enough to strengthen his position by demonstrating courage in relation to the “damned capitalists”.
And this demonstration may be more serious than the incident with the Cheonan corvette torpedoed in 2010 by a North Korean submarine, allegedly on the personal instructions of Kim Jong-un, who was then the heir and just wanted to assert himself through this “bold” act. Yes, for 10 years, Kim Jong-un’s official position has undergone a serious evolution – from threats to the West and South Korea to direct cooperation, a summit and dialogs, even despite the persistence of serious disagreements. “If there were another president in his place, we would now be at war with North Korea. Now we have no war. We are not close to her, ” said Trump. However, the unexpected departure of Kim Jong-un can lead to this war.
The benefit of Kim Jong-un is not only that he keeps the world, but also that he helps the USA, South Korea and the whole world to solve the North Korean nuclear problem – and it solves it in the only possible way. Not by voluntary or voluntary-compulsory denuclearization (both options are fantastic), and not by forcing DPRK by force (fraught with a big war and hundreds of thousands of victims), but through economic reforms in the DPRK. Reforms that will gradually (very gradually) make North Korea a less aggressive country, focused not only on survival in an aggressive external environment, but on the development of its economy and social sphere.
Such a state would be a much more responsible owner of atomic bombs than a wounded beast cornered, ready to rush at an opponent in a dying nuclear jump. For these reforms, a combination of a number of factors is needed – not political will and the ability to soberly, without ideological blinks, analyze prospects (as Kim Jong-un has), but also a stable domestic and foreign political situation.
That is why the White, Blue and other Great Houses of the Earth left North Korea alone and strongly support Kim Jong-un’s economic initiatives. The death of Kim Jong-Un will put an end to these initiatives, and will also force the States and their allies to choose another, more dangerous and costly solution.
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