(ORDO NEWS) — World population is an estimate of the total number of people living on the planet, not a true running total of every child born minus every person who has died at a given point in time.
According to the CountryMeters 2021 report, there are 7,948,118,521 people in the world as of the end of 2021.
Since it is not possible to track in real time the number of births and deaths around the world, demographers or statisticians who study the human population calculate the number of people on Earth by adding regional population estimates, according to United Nations reports.
They derive these regional estimates by taking into account various factors, including the birth rate, or the average number of children born to each individual woman in her lifetime, and the death rate, or life expectancy of a person, taking into account the social and economic conditions of living in region.
What is happening to the population now
The world’s population has grown rapidly over the past two centuries, mainly due to the increase in the number of people who survived to reproductive age, since during this time the quality of life and health care have improved in almost all countries of the world.
However, since it peaked in the 1970s, the rate of world population growth has slowed, according to a 1993 report in Population Today.
The world population reached a billion a little over 200 years ago, in 1800, according to Our World in Data. In subsequent years, the growth rate accelerated rapidly. The next billion came just over a century later, in 1927.
According to the United Nations, the world’s population reached 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1975, 5 billion in 1987, and 6 billion in 1999. According to the same data, as of October 31, 2011, there were about 7 billion people in the world, and this number is likely to reach 8 billion in 2023, 9 billion in 2037, and 10 billion by 2057.
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The UN predicts that by 2100 the world’s population will reach about 11 billion people, although long-term predictions for the future may change.
In 2019, a report published by the United Nations predicted that the annual growth rate of the world’s population would fall to less than 0.1% by 2100 due to a decrease in the number of children born worldwide.
Over the past 50 years, the composition of the world’s population, or the number of people in different demographic categories such as nationality, ethnicity, and age, has changed.
The pattern of population growth is not uniform in different regions of the world. The population in some areas is growing faster than others due to differences in birth and death rates and different patterns of migration.
Overall, experts have identified four demographic “megatrends” that can help explain these changes in the composition of the world’s population: general population growth, aging, increased international migration, and urbanization. These are overarching themes that generally point to how and why the world’s population will change in the coming years.
History of world population growth over time
For most of human history, the world’s population grew relatively slowly. Historical demographers have estimated that about 4 million people lived on Earth by 10,000 BC. This number grew to about 190 million people at the dawn of the first millennium, in the year 0 AD.
Since then, the population has continued to grow, although it could either stay the same or decline during the Black Death, when the bubonic plague struck Europe. It killed 33% to 55% of the population in the 1300s.
The average annual population growth rate has been 0.04% per year since 10,000 BC. before 1700 AD. According to the same source, by 1800 there were about a billion people in the world. The Industrial Revolution at the turn of the century caused an acceleration in the rate of global population growth that continued for the next 100 years, leading to the birth of the world’s two billionth person in 1927.
Reasons for the increase
From 1920 to 1950, the population growth rate averaged about 1% per year. By mid-century, advances in public health, especially the discovery of antibiotics, had increased life expectancy and the number of people on the planet had increased dramatically.
This is all, of course, interesting, but when will the population of the Earth begin to decrease?! We know the answer !
Thirty-three years after the world’s population reached 2 billion, in 1960 it reached 3 billion. According to a 1998 study published in the journal Medicine & Global Survival, the growth rate in the second half of the 1960s reached an all-time high, averaging 2.04% per year.
Population growth skyrocketed in the second half of the 20th century for a number of reasons, including a widespread decline in mortality especially among children, says Sarah Hertog, a UN demographer.
“And, of course, improving child survival means that in a couple of decades, more adults will have more children for the next generation,” Hertog said. “In addition, the post-war baby boom [beginning in the late 1940s] led to population growth in North America and Europe in particular.”
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