(ORDO NEWS) — Early weather forecasts suggest that El Niño is likely to return later this year, replacing its counterpart, La Niña. El Niño is associated with an increase in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean.
At the end of 2023, meteorologists expect the return of the El Niño weather phenomenon, characterized by a rise in water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
It will replace the reverse La Niña process associated with the cooling of sea water.
According to CNBC, citing Met Office long-range forecasting professor Adam Skaife, the effects of El Niño tend to reach their peak in December, but it usually takes time for their effect to spread around the world.
Due to this delay, forecasters assume that in 2024 the Earth‘s climate could warm for the first time above the 1.5 ° C mark, the threshold set by the Paris climate agreements in 2015.
Scientists’ forecasts are based on the temperature indicators of 2016, which became the warmest year on record. It began with the advent of El Niño, which increased global temperatures.
In addition, the world has also recorded temperature records for the last eight years in a row, despite the fact that cooler La Niña conditions have persisted since 2019.
“Perhaps if we get a big El Niño, we will get very close – and this could be the first year above 1.5 °C,” said Adam Skeife.
El Niño episodes can have a significant impact on weather patterns around the world. For example, northern South America is likely to experience less rainfall and an increased risk of fires and droughts.
Droughts could also intensify in Indonesia as rainfall moves into the Pacific Ocean, increasing the risk of wildfires. A similar situation can develop in the east of Australia.
El Niño and La Niña (“boy” and “girl” in Spanish) replace each other every few years during the cycle of climatic processes known in the scientific community as the Southern Oscillation.
During El Niño, the heated surface waters in the tropical Pacific move eastward, while during La Niña, the wind drives the warm water in the opposite direction, causing cold water from the depths to rise to the surface, bringing cooling.
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