US, WASHINGTON (ORDO NEWS) — Putin’s game in the oil price war has always been to raise the issue of easing sanctions, and it seems that this is exactly what is happening now. The assistance that Russia provided to the United States to fight Covid-19 this week is well in line with Trump’s expectations of resuming cooperation with Putin – well, all my Moscow hotels love their uncle.
It’s also interesting that this week the Russian and Trump teams seemed to have started to work together on the Venezuelan issue, and this, in my opinion, is part of a big prize for Putin and Trump for ending the “cold period” for Russia.
Nevertheless, there will be no agreement on oil until Putin gets exactly what he wants: reliable guarantees that the sanctions will be lifted. In addition, he wants Trump to return him to the top teams of global leaders of the G8 or even arrange some kind of G2-3 – think about Yalta-2, where Trump and Putin can divide the world into relevant zones of influence – consider Venezuela and Cuba will leave the United States, Ukraine and the former Soviet republics will remain Russia (possibly even the former Baltic), Turkey for the United States, Syria for Russia, and agree on trophies in Libya and the rest of the Middle East.
Putin’s desire to do everything quickly is partly due to the American election cycle: he believes that any agreement important for the overall picture should be created under the supervision of Trump and before the victory of potential Biden and the Democrats in November this year, since the latter will tighten sanctions against Russia for all Putin’s sins of the past.
When I say “fast,” I mean Putin’s desire to play a plan in weeks or months, but timing is closely linked to the US election cycle. Therefore, everything will not necessarily unfold this or next week, and I assume that he wants to end this by the middle of the year – believing that after Covid-19 any summit of great powers will become easier to organize. And I bet that by September Putin will want all these conversations to be sealed with agreements and signatures – and some big gesture – a symbolic summit – will be included in these plans, as happened at the time with the Reagan and Gorbachev meeting in Reykjavik.
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