(ORDO NEWS) — Meteorologists around the world are trying to constantly improve the quality of weather forecasts, including long-term ones. The result of a new international scientific collaboration coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization and led by the United Kingdom’s Office of Meteorological Services (Met Office) has been the provision of annually updated five-year climate forecasts on a global and continental scale.
For the first time, climate scientists have combined their efforts and resources to prepare an annually updated climate change forecast for the next 5 years. Using the best computer models in ten climate centers around the world, each year a new climate change forecast will be developed, designed for 5 years in advance. Long-range forecasting specialists at British MetOffice believe that this provides a new opportunity for governments and decision-makers to respond faster and more accurately to anthropogenic climate changes and better understand current climate risks. It is expected that this forecast will take into account natural changes, as well as human influence on the climate, and will provide the best representations of possible changes in temperature, rainfall and wind characteristics over the next 5 years.
Climate forecasting groups from the UK, Spain, Germany, Canada, China, the USA, Japan, Australia, Sweden and Denmark presented new forecasts this year. According to a generalized five-year forecast of climate change, over one of the next five years with a probability of 20% it is expected that the average world air temperature will exceed by 1.5 ° the indicators of the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). A further acceleration in the rate of warming of the Arctic is also expected compared with other regions and there is an increased risk of storms in the Atlantic basin.
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