4 scenarios for the further development of the COVID-19 pandemic

(ORDO NEWS) — The British Emergency Science Advisory Group has provided four very different scenarios for how the pandemic will play out. Despite this, they all say that the spread of the virus around the world will not end soon.

The best option is that the vaccines will be quite effective in the fight against new strains of coronavirus, which in turn will not have a high rate of infectivity or severity of the course. With antiviral medications, people won’t get too sick. Only regional or seasonal outbreaks will occur.

The second scenario says that waves continue to occur from time to time due to the fact that herd immunity becomes weaker. Bad years will alternate with good ones.

Some of the strains of coronavirus are capable of provoking a severe course of the disease. Most people are protected by strong immunity, but the disease begins to show resistance to antiviral drugs.

The third scenario suggests that one by one, waves of infection continue, which are the result of new strains of the virus. Most people are protected by vaccines and fairly strong collective immunity, but resistance to antiviral drugs is gradually increasing.

The worst case scenario is that the infection is transmitted too quickly. Due to the fact that it was not possible to complete the vaccination, the virus passes to animals and again returns to people, which causes new and repeated infections. The long-term consequences of the disease are recorded.

Regardless of which particular scenario of the development of events turns out to be the most reliable, experts note that it takes about two to ten years for the situation in the world to stabilize.


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